Baker Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand in Week 3 against Minnesota. The MRI came back as good news — no ligament damage, his UCL is intact — which was the best-case scenario.
Coach Todd Bowles initially said three weeks, but injury experts say 3–6 weeks is more realistic for full throwing recovery (from the Baker Mayfield page). Even when he returns, grip strength will still be compromised, so there's some lingering risk.
On Fantasy Points Fantasy Football, they estimated roughly 3–4 weeks as a reasonable timeline, similar to what the experts are projecting. So if the injury happened in Week 3 (late September), a late-October return is the best bet.