Trevor Lawrence

NFL player. Position: QB. Team: JAC.

Quick Facts

• Position: QB
• Team: JAC (Jacksonville Jaguars)
• Bye week (2026): 7
• FantasyPros PPR rank (pulled 2026-05-21): 80

2026 Outlook

Breakout 2025 season under new head coach Liam Coen marked a dramatic turnaround for Lawrence and the Jaguars. After a disappointing 2024 (2-8 as starter), Lawrence thrived in Coen's scheme, completing 341-of-560 passes for 4,007 yards and a career-high 29 passing TDs, adding 9 rushing TDs for 38 total scores (3rd most in NFL). Lawrence was an MVP finalist while Coen was a Coach of the Year finalist.

Jaguars finished 13-4 and won the AFC South after a 5-4 start, then won 8 consecutive games to close the regular season. Lawrence's efficiency spiked notably in the second half once the playbook install clicked, suggesting 2026 ceiling is even higher if the offense maintains continuity. Elite QB/HC pairing remains critical—Lawrence and Coen are now being discussed as a top-tier duo capable of entering an elite tier alongside McVay/Stafford, Reid/Mahomes, Sirianni/Hurts, and others with Super Bowl pedigree (per How Jaguars' Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence Can Enter a Special Tier in 2026).

Tight end shift advantage: The Jaguars significantly increased emphasis on the tight end position through the 2026 draft, adding explosive talent behind star TE Brenton Strange. Second-round pick Nate Boerkircher (ranked first among SEC tight ends in run-blocking grade) and fifth-round pick Tanner Koziol (74 receptions in college, 727 yards, 6 TDs) give Lawrence more dynamic tight end options for 12 and 13 personnel packages. Lawrence sees the advantage: "You can find some mismatches if you have really good tight ends. There are so many options that you can do and you kind of know at least what type of personnel you're going to get on defense." The deeper tight end room should help Lawrence exploit defensive adjustments and create additional passing lanes. In June, the Jaguars locked in Strange long-term with a 3-year extension worth up to $48M ($25M guaranteed), cementing him as Lawrence's top receiver target. (per Trevor Lawrence Sees Key Advantages in Jaguars' Seismic TE Shift and Jaguars TE Brenton Strange 3-year extension)

2026 challenges and approach: The Jaguars will play only 6 home games in 2026 due to stadium renovations, forcing 11 games on the road. This is compounded by a first-place schedule after winning the division last year. Coen and Lawrence have publicly committed to a "relentless pursuit" mindset and are focused on avoiding complacency. Lawrence echoed Coen's message about being "intentional every day" in preparation, suggesting the offense will prioritize mastery of existing concepts over expansion (per Liam Coen Knows Just How to Guide the Jaguars Through Stadium Renovation Schedule and OTAs Week 1: 'Intentional Every Day…').

Scaling the 2025 success: Coen and offensive coordinator Grant Udinski are focused on making the Jaguars offense "unstoppable" in 2026 after a dominant 2025. While many offenses would expand the playbook, the Jaguars' emphasis is on refinement and leverage—especially through increased deployment of 13 personnel (one RB, three TEs) inspired by Sean McVay's approach. Coen noted that 13 personnel forces defenses to use heavier base packages, and with the Jaguars' upgraded tight end depth, Lawrence will exploit defensive adjustments and create additional mismatches. The goal is for Lawrence to build on his MVP-caliber 2025 season and lead the team on a deep playoff run (per Jaguars Offense Still Has Steps to Take in 2026).

Lawrence is reporting a distinctly "calmer" feel entering year two of the system. "A lot less thinking" once the snap occurs—the offense has become instinctive for him, freeing mental bandwidth to work on game-to-game refinements with receivers. With the offensive install being "a lot more in-depth" compared to year one, Lawrence and the skill position group can focus on detailed communication and timing rather than play-recognition basics (per Two Clemson pros ranked in most important players in NFL).

Regression risk: Some analysts are factoring in a potential drop-off in 2026 following the Jaguars' 13-4 breakout. Jacksonville lost RB Travis Etienne and LB Devin Lloyd in free agency, faces a first-place schedule after winning the AFC South, and will play only 6 home games due to stadium renovations. While Lawrence likely remains a solid QB2/flex option, the novelty of Coen's scheme eroding slightly combined with roster losses creates a path to more pedestrian 2026 numbers (per NFL Power Rankings: Updated league rankings following blockbuster trades).

CBS tier analysis (July 2026): CBS Sports ranked Lawrence in Tier 2 "borderline stars"—a crowded group that includes elite tier-2 talents but just below transcendent tier (Stafford, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson). The ranking reflects Lawrence's MVP-caliber 2025 season and proven pairing with coach Liam Coen, while acknowledging the roster losses (Travis Etienne) and schedule headwinds (only 6 home games due to stadium renovations, first-place schedule after winning AFC South). Lawrence still carries tier-2 pedigree for fantasy purposes—a top-10 QB with ceiling for top-5 output (per Where Clemson's NFL QBs fall in CBS tiered rankings).

From a fantasy draft positioning standpoint, Lawrence occupies the Tier 2 "Patience" value bracket, available in Rounds 6-8 with top-4 upside. In 2025 he was sixth in passing yards and fourth in fantasy points per game, a pedigree that earns mid-round attention. The trade-off: injury history weighs as a risk factor (missed more games than he played two years ago), but mitigating that risk with an upside backup QB and roster strength elsewhere can deliver strong ROI. For managers hitting on Lawrence's ceiling, the payoff is a top-4 QB on a discount relative to early-round premium selections (per 2026 Fantasy Draft Strategy Guide: Quarterbacks).

Late-round experts identify Lawrence as a league-winning QB1 target. His post-Week 5 2025 pace ranked him among the league's elite in expected fantasy points; pair that with consistent rushing production (often from designed plays) and continued scheme familiarity entering year two, and experts believe he offers legitimate overall QB1 potential despite late-round availability. (per 10 Must-Have Draft Picks Experts Love (2026 Fantasy Football))

Receiver rotation advantage: With all five starting receivers healthy and available, Lawrence will have the rare luxury of a full rotation, preventing defenses from keying on any single player. This depth—especially with tight end Brenton Strange locked in long-term—should keep Lawrence efficient and positioned as a top-10 QB option despite being drafted outside the top 10 due to the depth at the position. The combination of scheme familiarity entering year two and a complete healthy receiver set makes him strong value at current ADP (per Fantasy Football 2026: 5 league winners for drafts - PFF).

NFL Top 100 recognition (July 2026): Lawrence ranked between 61-70 in NFL.com's Top 100 Players of 2026, earning recognition for his MVP-caliber 2025 breakout. His dramatic improvement under Liam Coen—transforming from a 2-8 starter in 2024 to an MVP finalist—proves he's a legitimate franchise quarterback. The ranking reflects his second-half 2025 dominance, where he averaged a league-high 10.5 yards per attempt during an 8-game winning streak and posted a 47.0% dropback success rate on third downs (8th among qualified QBs) (per Top 100 Players of 2026, Nos. 70-61: Lamar Jackson slides 67 spots; Trevor Lawrence up to No. 62).

ESPN QB evaluation (July 2026): While Lawrence didn't crack ESPN's top-10 QB survey of NFL executives, coaches, and scouts, he received honorable mention recognition with substantive analysis. A veteran AFC offensive coach praised his maturation: "He has controlled his turnovers and just has a better understanding of what defenses are trying to do against him." From Weeks 14-18 of 2025, Lawrence ranked 2nd in the NFL in PFF passing grade (93.7) with 15 big-time throws against just 2 turnover-worthy plays. His December performance (5-0 record, 105-of-165 for 1,371 yards, 13 TDs, 113.5 passer rating) showcased elite efficiency in the most critical stretch. For the full 2025 season, Lawrence set a Jacksonville franchise record with 38 total touchdowns (29 passing, 9 rushing) while reaching 4,000 passing yards for the third time in four seasons (per Trevor Lawrence mentioned, makes analysis for ESPN Top NFL QBs survey).

Dynasty value perspective (July 2026): The fantasy community has treated Lawrence's rough 2024 (2-8 as starter) as an anchor on his perception, overlooking his explosive 2025 breakout (350.1 fantasy points finishing QB4). Despite proving he can play at an elite level, Lawrence is falling deep into middle rounds of dynasty startups due to "short-sighted market adjustments." With his offense putting itself together (upgraded tight end depth, proven Coen pairing), Lawrence offers huge upside especially if already drafted a QB early. He provides both a long-term starter floor and viable QB2 in Superflex leagues without wasting early draft capital. The upside here is significant if you secure Lawrence on discount and load up on elite RBs and WRs. (per 4 Dynasty Startup Draft Values: Quarterbacks (2026 Fantasy Football))

External validation (Aug 12): Russell Wilson, now an analyst for CBS, named Lawrence as his pick for 2026 breakout QB, citing "great talent" and "good players around him" with year-two continuity with coach Liam Coen expected to unlock another leap (per Russell Wilson says Caleb Williams reminds him of younger self: 'He's got some crazy talent').

2026 championship ceiling requires consistency (Sep 6): Lawrence's path to Super Bowl contention requires sustained 2025 momentum. If he plays "like a top-three quarterback," as he did during the eight-game winning streak (ranking third in EPA per dropback), the Jaguars can compete for a playoff run. However, offensive line protection remains fragile: Walker Little and Anton Harrison haven't established themselves as proven starters, and Cole Van Lanen is returning from knee injury. Preseason consensus: "If the offensive line doesn't allow Lawrence to reach his ceiling, Jacksonville remains vulnerable despite elite skill position talent." The offensive line must stabilize for the Jaguars to justify expectations of another deep run, or Lawrence's MVP-caliber play will be wasted (per The cold, hard truth about all 32 NFL teams before kickoff - theScore).

Round 7-8 value despite QB4 finish (Aug 25): Roto Street Journal names Lawrence as the QB7 breakout candidate in mid-round draft strategy. Despite finishing QB4 in 2025 (350.1 FPs), Lawrence is falling to Round 7-8 ADP while he's "second-highest drafted QB" behind only Drake Maye by The Wolf (ADP 89, QB10). The breakout case is straightforward: Lawrence's final seven games averaged 34.4 points per game (only Rams ahead at 35.1 PPG), leaping from 27th in points per drive to 3rd. From Week 10 onward, Lawrence averaged 25 FPPG as the QB1, outscoring even Josh Allen. Brian Thomas Jr. was "largely a non-factor" in that stretch, suggesting even more upside if BTJ steps into his full role. Entering Year 2 under Liam Coen, Lawrence is "having the most calm' offseason" with no injury management or coaching changes, and expressing comfort in the system. Beat writers emphasize he's "able to react to the defense much better now" and plays "so much faster." The downfield game with BTJ is "now clicking at a dangerous level," with BTJ earning "Team MVP" honors in OTAs. At Round 7-8 ADP, Lawrence offers QB1 upside with star-level pairing to Liam Coen that mirrors elite duos like McVay/Stafford or Reid/Mahomes (per 2026 Fantasy Football Breakouts and Values: Top-10 Mid Round Picks Who Could Explode - Roto Street Journal).

Week 1 Performance (September 16): Lawrence led the Jacksonville Jaguars to a comfortable victory over the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. He led all quarterbacks in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), ranking second at the position in both PFF grade and PFF passing grade. His efficient decision-making in Liam Coen's second season together validates the offensive continuity advantage heading forward (per 2026 NFL Quarterback Rankings: Week 2 - PFF).

Week 4 matchup vs. Bengals (Oct 1 preview): Lawrence faces Cincinnati in Week 4 with a unique narrative: the Bengals are the only AFC team he has never beaten in his NFL career (0-3), including losses in 2021, 2023, and a late-season 2025 contest where backup Jake Browning rallied Cincinnati to victory after Joe Burrow's injury. Lawrence acknowledged the streak during a Wednesday press conference, saying "It's definitely something that, when you're going into the game, you think about." The Jaguars (2-1) and Bengals (2-1) are both positioned in the AFC playoff race, making this Week 4 matchup significant for positioning (per The Bengals are the only AFC team Trevor Lawrence has never beaten).

Week 4 result (Oct 5 vs Bengals): Lawrence finally ended his AFC curse by defeating Cincinnati 22-17 in Jacksonville. He completed 18-of-23 passes for 227 yards and one TD, playing efficiently rather than spectacularly. The Jaguars' defense created the game-winning margin with two interceptions of Joe Burrow (including a red-zone turnover that set up a TD) and two critical red-zone stops. Jacksonville has now recorded an interception in nine consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Lawrence's ability to win "ugly" by protecting the football while his defense created turnovers is more encouraging for January success than needing a fourth-quarter comeback. (per Trevor Lawrence finally erased one strange hole from his NFL resume).

Elite QB status affirmed (Oct 11): Through Week 4 of the 2026 season, Lawrence has 49 total touchdowns (40 passing, 9 rushing), ranking third in the NFL behind only Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen (both 58). This reinforces his elite tier status after his MVP-caliber 2025 breakout year. The Jaguars are 11-of-13 over their last span, boasting the best AFC record in that timeframe, validating Liam Coen's system and Lawrence's role as a top-tier fantasy QB. Lawrence's consistency in producing elite-level scoring validates his league-winning mid-round draft value. (per Trevor Lawrence continues to perform among the NFL's elite quarterbacks)

October 9 — ELWAY model favorite: The updated Silver Bulletin ELWAY model rates the Jaguars as an emerging favorite to win the AFC South, with Lawrence highly regarded by the QBERT model. Playing in a division where the preseason-favorite Texans are 0-4 opens playoff positioning for Jacksonville, especially with Lawrence's proven elite QB play through five weeks. (per 2026 ELWAY NFL projections: Week 5 - Silver Bulletin).

Week 4 preview notes (Sept 25): Through early September, Lawrence has scrambled only once, a significant departure from his 2025 pattern (44 scrambles, half his 88 rush attempts). However, the Jaguars have weaponized his running ability in red-zone situations (9 rushing TDs in 2025), and beat reporters expect his legs to "factor majorly" in upcoming contests against defenses that deploy man coverage and blitzes. On third down and in fourth-quarter red-zone spots, expect Lawrence to escape the pocket more frequently as defensive schemes tighten (per Callahan: Patriots fixed their pass rush with blitz brilliance and more Week 3 thoughts - Boston Herald).

Role / Depth Chart

Starting QB for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Entrenched after strong 2025 performance.

Injury Status

Healthy. No major injuries entering 2026.

Recent News

• 2026-10-15 — It wouldn't shock me IF ... NFL Week 6: Trevor Lawrence melts down at Wembley, Giants... (It wouldn't shock me IF ... NFL Week 6: Trevor Lawrence melts down at Wembley, Giants...)
• 2026-10-11 — Trevor Lawrence continues to perform among the NFL’s elite quarterbacks (Trevor Lawrence continues to perform among the NFL’s elite quarterbacks)
• 2026-08-23 — 3 Players with Difficult Early-Season Schedules to Buy Low: Target Trevor Lawrence (3 Players with Difficult Early-Season Schedules to Buy Low: Target Trevor Lawrence)
• 2026-08-16 — Should Jaguars be worried about backup QB spot behind Trevor Lawrence? - FL Times-Union (Should Jaguars be worried about backup QB spot behind Trevor Lawrence? - FL Times-Union)
• 2026-10-05 — Trevor Lawrence finally erased one strange hole from his NFL resume (Trevor Lawrence finally erased one strange hole from his NFL resume)
• 2026-08-26 — The Steps Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence Are Taking To Try To Surpass Breakout Season (The Steps Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence Are Taking To Try To Surpass Breakout Season)
• 2026-10-01 — The Bengals are the only AFC team Trevor Lawrence has never beaten (The Bengals are the only AFC team Trevor Lawrence has never beaten)
• 2026-09-27 — Trevor Lawrence throws 3 TDs as Jaguars dominate Patriots 35-6 (Trevor Lawrence throws 3 TDs as Jaguars dominate Patriots 35-6)
• 2026-09-27 — NFL Week 3 overreactions: Drake Maye's turnover problem to doom Patriots, Trevor... (NFL Week 3 overreactions: Drake Maye's turnover problem to doom Patriots, Trevor...)
• 2026-09-26 — Patriots vs. Jaguars in NFL Week 3: How to watch Drake Maye vs. Trevor Lawrence, plus... (Patriots vs. Jaguars in NFL Week 3: How to watch Drake Maye vs. Trevor Lawrence, plus...)

Open Questions

(scoped to this player — pulled from Fantasy Football Open Questions)